What’s happening in the Fredericksburg market?
August 2008
Based on the most recent statistical data available from the Realtor® associations in Northern Virginia, the Fredericksburg Regional real estate market is pretty typical of the declining real estate market countrywide. The region compares favorably with the nation as a whole and has its pluses and minuses when compared to the other locales in Northern Virginia. The latest monthly data available (July 2008) suggests that median sale prices in the Fredericksburg region remain the most stable having decreased by 14.28% from July 2007 to July 2008 compared to higher numbers in the surrounding regions; 16.87% in Fairfax-Arlington, 28.11% in Greater Piedmont (Warrenton-Culpeper), and 39.62% in Prince William (Manassas-Woodbridge).
Now some might consider that good news because that statistic shows the Fredericksburg region being “less bad” than our neighbors but further analysis shows that we’re weaker than our local brethren in the percentage of our listings that get sold and the amount of time it takes to sell them.
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Locality | Active Listings | Units Sold | % Sold | Average Price | Chg Yr/Yr Average Price | Median Price | Chg Yr/Yr Median Price | Avg Days on Mkt | Avg Sale Price as % List Price |
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Fairfax Region | 10002 | 1857 | 19% | $485,225 | -12.46% | $399,000 | -16.87% | 91 | 92.60% |
Prince William | 6105 | 1012 | 17% | $244,494 | -38.27% | $214,000 | -39.62% | 112 | 90.06% |
Greater Piedmont | 2177 | 140 | 6% | $310,347 | -16.40% | $230,000 | -28.11% | 122 | 87.94% |
Fredericksburg | 3527 | 346 | 10% | $294,624 | -14.28% | $269,900 | -14.59% | 142 | 89.27% |
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So what’s the deal? Is it a good market or a bad market? The answer to that question depends on your perspective. If you’re a first-time buyer or an investor, the market hasn’t been this good since the early 90’s. If you’re a seller looking at what you could’ve gotten for your house in 2006, the market hasn’t been this bad since the early 90s. But, the market is what it is and the way to approach any market is to look for the greatest opportunities. As a seller, you might say, what opportunities? How can I find an opportunity in such a depressed market? The answer to that, of course is that real estate is truly local and while the Fredericksburg market is down in general, there are neighborhoods that are still selling strongly and your home just might be in one of them. While you won’t be able to get the 2006 value for your home you might still be able to get an attractive price. From the buying perspective, there are neighborhoods that are heavily discounted because a large number of homes are for sale or have been foreclosed. Being selective and checking neighborhoods closely you’ll find that there are many deals and some steals to be had in those neighborhoods. There’s always an opportunity for savvy buyers armed with a knowledgeable agent.